Category Archives: Football

EUFA Champions League, Football, Premier League

Predicting the Champions League winner from the last 16 teams

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As we reach this stage of the Champions League, I usually find myself saying the same thing: Manchester City are the most likely team to win the tournament, but the most probable outcome is that someone other than City lifts the trophy.

However, this year is different—because Manchester City have already been knocked out of the competition.

Despite their elimination, City had been the betting favorites to win the Champions League at this stage in each of the last seven seasons. With City out of the picture and a lopsided draw that places four of the top five teams in the Club Elo ratings on one side of the bracket, this year’s tournament feels more open and unpredictable than it has in a long time.

To analyze the remaining contenders, I’ll follow my annual approach: subjectively choose a set of statistical benchmarks, compare them to the past 14 Champions League winners, and gradually eliminate teams that don’t meet the criteria until only one remains.

All data, unless specified otherwise, comes from Opta and Stats Perform and focuses on domestic league performance. With that, let’s dive into predicting this season’s Champions League winner!

Predictive Measurement No. 1: Scoring Goals

This year, I’m introducing a slightly more refined statistical metric. While it’s not drastically more advanced, it’s an improvement over my previous methods, which relied on goals per game or expected goals (xG).

Instead, I’m combining a team’s ability to create chances with their efficiency in converting them, using a weighted formula of 70% expected goals and 30% actual goals. This provides a better representation of a team’s strength at this stage of the season.

As I’ve noted in the past, the benchmark for many of these metrics was set by the 2011-12 Chelsea team, which finished sixth in the Premier League but won the Champions League in a famously gritty campaign. According to our adjusted goals model, that Chelsea side averaged 1.61 per game—only slightly lower than the 2020-21 Chelsea team under Thomas Tuchel, which averaged 1.62. Every other Champions League winner in our dataset averaged at least 1.97 in this metric, with Bayern Munich’s 2019-20 team peaking at 2.76.

This year, the only team failing to meet the Chelsea threshold is Aston Villa, who average 1.5 xG and 1.4 actual goals per game. Fortunately for them, they face Club Brugge, the other team we’re eliminating at this stage. Brugge is excluded because they’re not in our statistical database and haven’t won the Champions League in the past 14 seasons.

Football, HOME, Premier League, Soccer, Uncategorized

MAN CITY BOSS GUARDIOLA UPBEAT OVER BOBB RETURN

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Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola has indicated that Oscar Bobb is nearing a return to action.

Bobb sustained a fractured leg in August, and initial reports suggested he would be sidelined for the remainder of 2024. While hopes were high for an earlier comeback, his recovery has taken longer than anticipated.

However, Guardiola now expresses optimism that Bobb could play a part in the latter stages of the season.

“He’s improving steadily and has even trained with the team over the past few days,” said Guardiola. “Although his absence has been longer than we hoped, we’re optimistic he can contribute in the final stretch of the season.

“We’re eager to support him, as it’s been a challenging period for him. Thankfully, there’s always light at the end of the tunnel.”

Football, Premier League, Uncategorized

Real Madrid is encouraging Arsenal defender Saliba to remain patient.

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Real Madrid is prepared to bide their time for Arsenal defender William Saliba. Despite rumors connecting the French international with a potential move to Real this summer, Relevo reports that the Spanish club has alternative plans.

Rather than making an immediate move, Real Madrid plans to monitor Saliba closely over the next 18 months, with the intention of pursuing him in the summer of 2026.

Saliba’s current contract extends until 2027, and Real Madrid is confident that the defender will remain patient before eventually making the switch to Madrid.

For now, Real Madrid aims to allocate this summer’s transfer budget to strengthening other areas of the squad.

Football, HOME, Premier League, Soccer, Uncategorized

Solskjær to Manchester United executives: “The culture of the club is defined by its people.”

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Former Manchester United manager and treble winner Solskjær has pointed out that the frequent managerial changes since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement have contributed to ongoing issues at the club.

“That’s something for the leadership at United to address, but one problem is that each manager inherits the previous manager’s squad,” Solskjær told The Athletic.

“I look back fondly on my time at United, except for the final six weeks. It was filled with great people, and the culture is shaped by those individuals. Returning to United felt like coming home to family, as if I’d never left.

“Similarly, Beşiktaş has that family-like atmosphere, with mutual respect. There are staff members here who’ve been part of the club for 10, 20, even 30 years.”

He continued, “Those last six weeks were undoubtedly tough, but it’s worth noting that we were leading our Champions League group at the time.

“We also made it to a European final, and I understand José Mourinho’s perspective when he said his greatest achievement was finishing second in the league with United.”

Football, HOME, Spanish Laliga, Uncategorized

MADRID STAR VINI JR: SPL CHIEFS ASSURES DEAL WITH AGENT.

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Vinicius Junior

Saudi Pro League officials are determined to secure the signing of Real Madrid star Vinicius Jr., no matter the cost. Reports indicate that SPL representatives have been in touch with Vinicius Jr.’s camp, presenting a staggering four-year contract offer worth €1 billion.

However, the Brazilian forward has reportedly decided to put the proposal on hold for now, while Real Madrid has firmly dismissed any transfer speculation, pointing to his €1 billion release clause.

“There’s no need to rush. We’ll handle this situation with patience, just as Real Madrid did with Kylian Mbappé,” sources from Saudi Arabia have stated.

According to these sources, Saudi Arabia plans to reopen negotiations in June, preparing to table a new offer that could reach around €300 million to secure Vinicius Junior’s transfer. “We are committed to signing him at all costs,” Saudi officials have emphatically told the Real Madrid striker’s representatives.

The Saudis’ interest in Vinicius Jr. has reportedly grown even stronger compared to their pursuit last summer. read more…

Football, HOME, Premier League, Uncategorized

Spurs and Manchester United seek a turnaround in their fortunes.

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 Clive Rose | Credit: Getty Images

Struggling Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur will each aim to turn their fortunes around with a crucial result when they face off on Sunday in North London.

Manchester United (8-11-5, 29 points) and Tottenham Hotspur (8-13-3, 27 points) are currently languishing in 13th and 14th places in the Premier League, enduring similarly dismal winter campaigns. Since December, the two teams have managed just five league wins combined, alongside 15 defeats and three draws, leaving their supporters to argue over which side has been the season’s most significant letdown.

Even United manager Ruben Amorim, who took over in late November following Erik ten Hag’s departure, weighed in on the debate about who faces greater scrutiny—himself or Spurs’ Ange Postecoglou.

“I can see why people draw comparisons between me and Ange,” Amorim remarked. “We’re dealing with similar challenges, but with all due respect, I’m at a bigger club with higher expectations and pressure.” more updates…

Football, Premier League

Chelsea boss Maresca delighted with victory over Noah

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Enzo Maresca, the manager of Chelsea, has talked about giving young player Tyrique George his chance.

For a Europa Conference League game against Noah, the Blues boss called for changes.

Maresca talked about telling George he was going to start about two hours before the game started after they won 8–0.

“I think he was very good,” Maresca told the press. I told them before the game that sometime it’s better to tell them the day before so they have time to get ready, but sometimes it’s better to tell them at the end so they don’t get worried.

“Tyrique was going to start, which we already knew, but I told him only two hours before the game.” I believe he did a great job.

“Sam Rak-Sakyi was also great.” Marc Guiu scored in the end, which makes me very happy. This season, he hasn’t had much time with us, but he is working hard. All of them are 18, 17, and 19 years old. This is important. Read More….

Football, Premier League, Soccer

GUARDIOLA BACKED PLAYERS AFTER BOURNEMOUTH SHOCK

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Manchester City’s injury problems led to the end of their impressive 32-game unbeaten streak in the Premier League, with a surprising 2-1 defeat at Bournemouth.

Despite the loss, manager Pep Guardiola refused to blame injuries, emphasizing that the team lacked intensity and couldn’t match Bournemouth’s play.

City is now two points behind Liverpool, who won against Brighton.

Guardiola acknowledged that injuries limited their training and impact, but he credited Bournemouth for their performance.

Key players like Jack Grealish and Rodri were already sidelined, and though some injured players managed to play, Guardiola admitted they weren’t at full strength.

The team faces another challenge soon, as they travel to Lisbon for a Champions League match against Sporting on Tuesday. Read More

Football, Premier League, Soccer

Liverpool go top after win over Brighton

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Liverpool manager Arne Slot lauded a “Mo Salah special” after the forward’s goal helped the team come from behind to beat Brighton & Hove Albion 2-1, placing them at the top of the Premier League.

Salah’s goal came after Liverpool initially trailed due to Ferdi Kadioglu’s early strike for Brighton.

Cody Gakpo’s unexpected goal equalized before Salah scored the winner just minutes later.

This victory marked Slot’s impressive start as Liverpool’s manager, with the team achieving 13 wins in 15 matches.

While the defeats of rivals Manchester City and Arsenal were a bonus, Slot emphasized his focus on his team’s performance.

The only concern was Ibrahima Konaté’s injury, as he left the match at halftime after a mishap with teammate Virgil van Dijk. Read More..

Bundesliga, Football, Other Sports, Soccer

Dortmund stage a comeback win over Leipzig

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Dortmund, missing nine players through injury, bounced back from their midweek German Cup defeat by VfL Wolfsburg ahead of next week’s Champions League game with Sturm Graz and stretched their perfect Bundesliga home record to five straight wins.

The victory, which lifted them to fifth on 16 points – four behind Leipzig and seven off leaders Bayern Munich – was also a welcome respite for coach Nuri Sahin, whose team have yet to win an away game in the Bundesliga this season.

Leipzig suffered their first league defeat of the campaign ahead of Tuesday’s trip Celtic in the Champions League.

They did take the lead with Benjamin Sesko drilling into the top of the net from a tight angle in the 27th minute after the hosts missed a string of chances, including several by Jamie Bynoe-Gittens.

But Dortmund, who also gave 18-year-old Assan Ouedraogo his Bundesliga debut, levelled three minutes later when Maximilian Beier pounced on a loose ball in the box to stab home.

The hosts’ comeback was complete in the 65th minute with Serhou Guirassy’s close-range header. Read More …